The U.S. stock market is looking like a big jar of Sam's Wholesale mixed nuts. The large plastic container full of an assortment of tasty, nutrient-packed nuts offers a variety for just about every taste bud. The problem is that with every handful of fresh roasted almonds, cashews, and pecans, one must also endure the raw and tasteless Brazil and Spanish and filberts, placed in the bag as filler devilishly designed to reduce the manufacturers' costs and ruin a perfectly good bite.
As a consumer, you are left with an important decision. You can either grab a big handful, hoping the good nut taste will saturate the bad, or you can carefully spread the entire container out on the counter and meticulously separate the good nuts from the evil nuts, sliding the evil ones that waste stomach space off the counter and into nut purgatory.
Talking about nuts, the down and back of the U.S. market in the first four months of 2016 has been off the charts certifiable. And any attempt to predict where it goes from here will literally fly you over the cuckoo's nest.A good break above S&P 2,100 should favor the cashews, while a break below 2,027 and especially 2,008 should favor the filberts. Between is just a big bag of mixed nuts.
In the meantime, now that another earnings season has drawn to a close and companies have once again masterfully beat their lowered guidance, it may be time to open up your bag and take a bite. Just know there are some filberts in the mix. You best take your time, spread the bag on the counter, and start separating. Some of the precious metals, coal, steel, oil, natural gas, and those that mineor produce them are looking pretty tasty. Even some financials, tech and real estate names may be worth nibbling. But "some" is one of the operative words here. And "nibble" is the other. This is no time to dig both hands in and cock your head back.
At Good Life we are separating and nibbling. We think there is another move left in this crazy 2016, that the move could be significant, but the direction is still up in the air. We should know within the next few weeks or months, so stay tuned. In the meantime, you can always watch the Presidential election unfold. Talk about some mixed nuts.